Play Ball

In observance of Opening Day for the Cubs and Sox, the Tribune posted a photo album of famous first pitchers through the years.

(They missed my favorite honoree, Chewbacca because that was at Fenway. Also, I never knew Chewy was a lefty.)

The album raises a few questions for fans with a discerning eye and a secret hope that they may some day be asked to throw out a first pitch for being the best lawn and garden salesman at Sears or the bestest blogger ever.

Like, mitt or no mitt? You won't need to catch a damn thing, so why bring the leather? Jersey open or closed? For that matter, should you have your own name on the jersey? Because Michael Jordan wore a Sammy Sosa jersey when he took the mound at Wrigley.

I think the balance falls between looking like you're trying too hard and looking like you really don't care in case you suck. I think the open jersey look says, "I'm here to do this, but I'm a celebrity, so I'm far too cool and busy to practice tossing a ball beforehand."

On the other side of the fence is the desire to really suit up - some in their astronaut suits - before they take the field. I'm not sure how far people can push the envelope in this regard, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't lose a little respect for Will Ferrell when he opted out on the baseball pants and spikes combo.

That's an outfit to give Chewbacca a run for his money.

(Image from: The Boston Globe)

Hey ump, look alive

My favorite part of the Deadspin write-up where this video was posted is this:

The catcher and pitcher say it was a sign mixup. The only way that was a sign mixup is if the catcher had given the sign to "remain standing and catch the ball."

What? Wednesday - BABIP

So, it's Thursday, but in a effort to be somewhat timely, I wanted to address one of the hot stats of the moment, Batting Average on Balls put Into Play (BABIP).

The reason I bring it up this week is because in addition to Sports Illustrated touching on the stat when briefly examining the seasons of Ryan Dempster and Gavin Floyd, it was a topic of local sports radio earlier in the week.

I could probably run the entire blog off the premise, "Stupid things I've heard on talk radio today" but that enters an entirely new stage of bitterness I'm holding onto until my mid- to late 50s.

Someone had e-mailed in when the question of sustaining the seasons that the White Sox and Cubs are having with the exact same stats that were published in the magazine. Whether they dropped any mention of SI, or the program did wasn't clear, but it was a little annoying to hear something that was cut and pasted into an e-mail appear on the radio.

It's not just a problem when blogs aren't credited with their work, it's a problem when anyone is passing off work they didn't actually do as their own. Considering it was the Baseball Prospectus box, the e-mailer could have looked cool enough citing Joe Sheehan, if they didn't want to appear too mainstream citing SI. Somehow, the earth kept spinning on its axis, despite all of this and I was relieved.

A typical BABIP is between .290 and .300, depending on who you ask and measures the opponent's batting average on balls put into play, minus home runs. The idea behind it is that once a pitcher releases the ball, there's nothing he can do about the result. This number quantifies the number of balls that are falling in for hits behind him - in short, it gives a value to luck, good or bad.

While it would make an awful stat for fantasy baseball, it's a nice measure of what's happening with pitchers who weren't very good in the past and might be having breakout years, or of established pitchers who are getting roughed up early in the season.

Unfortunately, this is not one of the stats that MLB is currently tracking via their web site, so finding it takes a little digging. Because the stat works both ways, you can also find information on batters and their BABIP, which seem to take precedence over the pitchers on fantasy baseball sites.

(Image from: f1point4.com)

Jon Lester pitches no-hitter

With Jon Lester's no-hitter tonight - but really, does it count if it's against the Royals? - the Red Sox now have matching no-no's for the cornerstones of next generation's rotation (Clay Buchholz had the last no-hitter last September before he was shut down for the season).

Two walks and a runner that reached on a fielder's choice meant that Lester's chance at a perfect game fell by the wayside in the top of the second with a walk to Billy Butler, which might not be the worst way to go about things.

If you're going to lose your bid for the perfect game, but keep the no-hitter intact, wouldn't you want to get that out of the way early, before the pressure really builds and dropping from the perfecto has a chance to rattle you late in the game?

Tuning in for the last few innings of the game tonight, I was mainly thinking about two things.

First, aside from the pressure of a perfect game, a no-hitter has to be more challenging for the pitcher, right? I can't imagine there's that much more to weigh down a pitcher's mind between the two, but adding the extra batters can't help much.

Let's assume that you are pitching in the usual no-hitter where one or two batters reach base, either by walk or error. Now, you're walking to the mound in the ninth inning, you're already way over your normal pitch count and you're faced with the other team's top two hitters.

The normal balance of power late in the game swings from a stronger reliever against a tiring hitter to a starter being held in against the other team's best hitters who have now seen you for three at-bats.

That's what I'll remember tomorrow morning, when I'm bombarded by the crush of stories about how special this must be for Lester, Boston's most famous cancer survivor.

Cancer or not, a no-hitter is a big deal, period. That's why this is only the 18th no-hitter in the long history of the Red Sox. Here is another site's break down of where this no-hitter fits in with all the rest, including Jason Varitek being the new leader in no-hitters caught, with four.

Thank God the young pitchers have figured out that it's best to listen to the Captain in these types of situations. We're looking at you, Curt Schilling. Wherever you are.

(Image from: MLBlogs.com)

What? Wednesday - Let's start slow

It occurred to me the other day as I was watching a game with the MLB.com Gameday tracker on to let me see real-time scoring of pitch counts, how the hitters were holding up, etc. that there is a lot of new information being offered to fans that most of us are clueless about.

Case in point is the new Pitch f/x information that has even crept into the Gameday overlay. Now, when a pitch comes in, it's only a matter of seconds before users can see exactly how fast the pitch came in and how much it broke, drawing the trajectory for you on the screen.

If you're the kind of person prone to keeping the tracker on during games, you understand how cool this is. If not, you understand having dates on Fridays in high school - I think it's a fair trade.

However, with all of these numbers being thrown about, it's easy to get lost in the wash of statistics. If you're a casual fan who is finally able to discuss VORP, LIPS or basics like WHIP in the bar with a degree of certainty, it's a lot to digest.

So, I'm going to try to break some of these new measuring tools down as easily as possible. By that, I mean by presenting the simplest and clearest tutorials the web has to offer. These will appear on Wednesdays throughout the season and feel free to make requests in the comments section.

Starting slow is a very basic breakdown of what the most common pitches thrown in the majors look like, courtesy of Lokesh Dhakar, who cleaned off most of the usual gunk to provide simple, sharply illustrated pitch movement diagrams.

I may have posted this before, but it's worth repeating if I have - I only wish I'd had them around during my adventure in explaining pitch types to an Irish friend who was staying with us last fall. Even if a picture is worth 1,000 words, I overshot that by a good 600 words and still didn't make any sense.

These are also available in handy PDF form if you're taking your mother-in-law to a ballgame this season.

(Image from: MLB.com)

Maybe Larry Rothschild needs a computer

Just found this new site devoted to pitching mechanics and a pretty interesting breakdown of Mark Prior's pitching mechanics.

As I've mentioned here before, one of the main things Cubs fans were fed in eager anticipation of Prior's arrival was that he had impeccable mechanics that were on par with some of the all-time great power pitchers.

While it seems to be true that he might have been solid coming out of USC, check out the write up and accompanying video of how things started slowing down for Prior as the years ground on in Chicago.

I don't pretend to be any sort of expert on the mechanics of pitching, but even to this member of the unwashed, uneducated masses, it's not good for the human arm to add that pause to his delivery.

In any event, welcome to DrivelineMechanics.com and I look forward to seeing what they figure out this season. Maybe it's worth dropping a line to the Padres to have them take a peek at this before they break him for 2008?

(Image from: MLB.com)

Kerry Wood really isn't a huge AC/DC fan

One of the downsides of watching baseball on TV - and it's very minor - is missing the between innings theatrics. Sure, if it's a big enough show the broadcast team will usually run the tape back for the viewers, but that's pretty much a one-shot deal.

So, during yesterday's Cubs game, I missed Kerry Wood making his entrance en route to his first major league save. According to the Tribune, he entered to AC/DC's Dynamite, a selection he didn't make and didn't particularly care for.

Despite online contests to pick his entrance music, that was the best they could come up with.

Wood reportedly said he'd rather come in to organ music, like everyone else. Because nothing works the home crowd into a frenzy more than circus music. I'm all for tradition, but if that's the only issue, can't we get some James Brown or something?

(Image from: NYTimes.com)

Today in closers

Two quick links today as Minnesota kept their closer and the Cubs named theirs.

Joe Nathan inked a four-year, $47 million deal to stay with the Twins, while Kerry Wood is being named the closer in Chicago, despite his little scare from back spasms last week.

I'm currently working on the "don't pay for saves" post as soon as I brush up on Moneyball.

Expect that to follow a sleep-deprived rant after tomorrow morning's 5 a.m. Red Sox season opener, Live! From! Japan!

I'll also point you to numbers 42 and 43 from the Bugs and Cranks listing of the 162 things you need to know about the upcoming season.

42. Sean Casey is inactive for the Red Sox/A’s series in Japan because he got a stiff neck from sleeping in a bad position on the 17-hour flight.

43. Until DeLoreans can transport teams to the Far East in less than 17 hours, trips to Japan are stupid wastes of time for everyone involved.

(Image from CNNSI.com)

T-minus Clemens

I'm not going to dig myself too big of a hole here, but we're on the cusp of Roger Clemens on 60 Minutes, where smart money says he'll say, well, nothing.

I have major problems with Clemens as a player - most of it lingering bitterness from his departure from the Red Sox - so we won't get into that right now.

I think it's funny that on ESPN's morning show today, they ran an extended piece on lies that have been told to the American public via the media. In between Bill Clinton's, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman..." and Rafael Palmiero looking positively ridiculous pointing at a Congressional panel and denying his steroid use weeks before his suspension for steriod use, there was also a run of other athletes denying their involvement with steroids.

Like him or hate him, Clemens doesn't have the easiest sell regarding his innocence.

Hope he's got a good lawyer. And maybe a solid PR firm, too. You'd have to drink gallons of the Kool Aid to buy that song and dance at this point.

They just ran the preview at the top of the show and Mike Wallace is asking for the old lie detector test. Clemens does not seem pleased. It's always nice to counter steroid allegations with anger. That's just the basis for a rock-solid case.

Is it too late to follow Sammy Sosa's lead and insist you don't speak any English?

Sometimes you just have a good day

Just a quick note on the two pitching gems of the weekend - Scott Baker's near perfect game for the Twins on Friday night and Clay Buchholz pitching a no-hitter for the Red Sox a day later.

I especially liked these two performances because they came out of nowhere for both pitchers. Baker is still a relatively unknown quantity in Minnesota and Buchholz is a rookie in every sense of the word, but they both managed to put together strong showings, albeit against some pretty suspect competition in the Royals and Orioles.

Considering there are at least two or three starters who are much more likely to pitch no-hitters on each players' team, it made the respective feats that much more exciting.

While I don't quite agree with Josh Beckett's assessment that Buchholz was one better than Curt Schilling - well, maybe Saturday he was - it's what makes these late in the season matchups worth watching.

Given a good day, you're never sure what will happen. Even in a worthless game against the Royals.

(Image from: The Associated Press)

Highights from the State Fair

It's been a bit of a media blackout here this weekend, as I've taken a few days off from work to travel, hang out with my dad and head to the Minnesota State Fair this weekend.

My favorite sports-related highlight of the weekend - aside from a Red Sox no-hitter yesterday - was walking by the Twins whiffle ball field this afternoon, where kids played on a small field, ran the bases and burned off some sugar-induced energy.

One of the kids, no older than 5 or 6, got plunked with a whiffle ball and started trotting to first.

"Get back there," said the pitcher/guy who kept an eye on all the kids playing. "There's no free bases in whiffle ball."

When the kid started complaining, the pitcher told him to shut up or he'd hit him again.

I'm not sure what was more ridiculous - threatening to bean the kid (with a whiffle ball for crying out loud) in the first place or doing it in front of everyone and some livestock at the fair.

What'll Santana do next?

One of the interesting stories on Ballhype today poses the question: "Who's better - Pedro Martinez or Johan Santana in their respective primes?"

I'll warn you that as a link from The Hardball Times it's a little thick and stat heavy, but it's an interesting comparison. If nothing else, it helps to illustrate just how dominant Martinez was in his 20s (and what a mistake Tommy Lasorda made in shipping him off to Montreal) with some of his unreal numbers.

What it has me thinking of is how similar the two pitchers are, not on paper, but in terms of putting butts in the seats. Need any further evidence? Just look at Santana's line from Sunday.

One of the hallmarks of any great pitcher - and especially the power pitchers - is the spike in attendance when they take the hill. Martinez certainly had that in Boston and Santana is the undisputed champ of the "Are there tickets?" test in Minneapolis.

I've seen this before when Kerry Wood and Mark prior were healthy in Chicago and any fan can rattle the names of the big pitchers who they'd pay to see when they come to town. It's not just the pitchers you're happy to see pop up on the probables list when you have tickets in hand, it's the guys who you'll actively seek out when there name pops up.

Off the top of my head, I'd also put Felix Hernandez and Daisuke Matsuzaka on that list (with Matsuzaka subject to a mandatory one-year review during next year's Spring Training) of guys you just can't miss because something big might happen.

That's not to say I wouldn't enjoy seeing other pitchers or wouldn't pick up a ticket if I happened to be in town - for instance, if I had a chance to see Dontrelle Willis in Florida or Jake Peavy in San Diego I'd jump at the chance - but those three top my list of pitchers that I'd actively feel I was missing something each time I missed a start.

Sure, Martinez has the edge in pure numbers, but Santana is just as capable of delivering a performance for the ages each time he takes the hill.

What else can you really ask for?

(Photos taken for Siberian Baseball)

The Glove Whisperer

Watch enough baseball - and particularly in the late innings of a blowout - and chances are you're going to hear an announcer cracking wise about pitchers and catchers having a discussion while keeping their gloves over their mouths.

"Har, har," the announcer will say, "I didn't know that we had so many lip readers in the big leagues."

If they're feeling particularly spry, they'll also throw in, "Apparently the Rays/Yankees/ Cardinals have hired someone on the staff to monitor what's being said on the mound."

This never ceases to annoy me. It tells me two things: 1.) That these announcers are morons or incredibly naive to think that a league that sees stolen signs, complete tear downs of signal systems after a player is traded and a new breed of cloak and dagger pitch selection (see Varitek, Jason) wouldn't stoop to trying to lip read in key situations; and 2.) they never read Ryne Sandberg's autobiography, Second to Home.

In it, Sandberg writes about the 1989 Playoffs against the Giants and what transpired in Game 1. The Cubs were down 3-0 early, rallied back and were down 4-3 in the fourth with the bases loaded and Will Clark coming to the plate.

Greg Maddux was struggling, and (Don Zimmer) had the lefty, Paul Assenmacher, ready in the bullpen when he went out to see Maddux with the bases loaded, two outs and Will Clark due up.

...

As they were speaking, Will Clark walked back to the visitor's on-deck circle and stood next to Kevin Mitchell. And while Zim and Greg spoke, Clark read Greg's lips. Clark already had a double and a homer off Greg, but he saw Greg repeat what Zim said: Fastball in.

Clark knew what the pitch was going to be and sure enough it was a fastball in - but not far enough in for a guy who knew what pitch was coming. Clark was looking for it, got it, fully extended and hit that fastball in, out onto Sheffield Avenue for a grand slam.

It was 8-3 and Game 1 was basically over.

...

After we heard about what Clark had done, we were amazed. We've all tried it before, but I don't know anyone who has known for sure what the pitch was going to be by reading someone's lips...

I know one thing: Since that day, Greg Maddux has never had a conversation on the mound without putting his glove over his mouth.

So, there it is, hidden on page 143 of a pretty bad autobiography, where one of the game's premiere pitchers was burned by a lip-reading stroke of luck. I can't imagine that once Maddux started adopting the practice it took long for others to start mimicking him, regardless of the reason.

So, the next time some color commentary-spouting knucklehead asks that great hypothetical question, "When has that ever worked?" you'll know.

Game 1 of the 1989 playoffs at Wrigley Field when Will Clark put the game away with a back-breaking grand slam.

(Image from BostonDirtDogs.com)

The wheels aren't falling off the Dice-K bandwagon

I have to admit that I poach more than my fair share of ideas from little asides I'll hear on MLB broadcasts. Not to the point that I just transcribe what the announcers are saying, but where I'll hear conventional wisdom or skewed stats and wonder if they're correct.

Case in point? Daisuke Matsuzaka's home run totals.

Matsuzaka rattled off five starts - dating back to his June 10 start - without allowing a home run before allowing 3 on July 8 in Detroit and 2 on July 14 against Toronto. Questions of Matsuzaka's pitch counts (more on that later), arm slot and general pitching issues surfaced.

My question is whether or not anyone bothered to look at the numbers before asking those questions on the broadcast.

If you dig a little deeper to the stats for Matsuzaka this year, you'll see a roller coaster of innings, pitches, earned runs and home runs allowed.

Considering that he's had five starts each month - except for six in May and four so far in July and that will change this week - it's not that hard to do the math. For the sake of brevity, I'll use monthly totals, but the full stat sheet is available here.

April - 3-2; 4.36 ERA; 33 IP; 16 ER; 2 HR; 541 pitches thrown; 38 K.
May - 4-1; 5.22 ERA; 39.2 IP; 23 ER; 6 HR; 623 pitches thrown; 30 K.
June - 2-2; 1.59 ERA; 34 IP; 6 ER; 1 HR; 601 pitches thrown; 42 K.
July (four games) - 2-2; 4.88 ERA; 24 IP; 13 ER; 5 HR; 431 pitches thrown; 21 K.

The quick breakdowns show a few things:

* The home run allowances aren't that far out of whack, but after allowing just one homer in the entire month of June, seeing back to back games of three homers and two homers look like a problem. It's not.

* There should be strong concerns regarding pitch counts after throwing no fewer than 112 pitches per game in his five June starts, with a high of 130 on June 5. On the season, he's pitched no fewer than 85 pitches, with three starts under 100 pitches.

Seriously, go look at those stats again - it's ridiculous.

* There is a real "all or nothing" pattern in terms of earned runs in Matsuzaka's starts, where it's six or seven earned runs or two or fewer. Kind of strange.

* While the numbers don't really flesh it out much, Matsuzaka is prone to the proverbial big inning, where he'll get into trouble, walk a few batters, give up a cheap hit and find himself on the short end of a quick flurry of runs. Cubs fans will know this as the Kerry Wood Effect.

* Matsuzaka has allowed 13 homers on grass and only one on turf... so there's that.

* The numbers are pretty equal otherwise if you look at the split stats here. In short, there's no real reason for Red Sox Nation to panic quite yet.

Of course, there's always the second half of the season, warmer days to wear him down, warmer air to help the hitters and the growing body of work that other teams get to pick apart to try and give their hitters the edge in matchups.

In short, here we go again.

(Image from: NYTimes.com)

"Who the hell is Pat Neshek?" asks America

I'm looking again at the Final Vote for the MLB All-Star Game and the AL options are as follows:

The AL nominees include Jeremy Bonderman of the Tigers, Kelvim Escobar of the Angels, Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays, Pat Neshek of the Twins and Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox.

According to the same post:

Managers Tony La Russa of the National League and Jim Leyland of the American League have gone with pitchers-only in presenting fans with their five nominees per league to decide the 32nd and final rosters spots for the 78th All-Star Game on July 10 at AT&T Park in San Francisco. A pitcher-only ballot only happened once before, when you chose Houston's Roy Oswalt from NL candidates in 2005.

So, in other words, Leyland opted for Neshek and Okajima over Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan and Kevin Youkilis to name a few. That makes little to no sense.

For the record, Neshek and Okajima are having solid seasons - Neshek's numbers are here and Okajima's can be found here - but I doubt Neshek or even Escobar stand a snowball's chance in hell on this one. Not even with Neshek's web savvy disposition, though I haven't checked MySpace for him yet.

On a side note, but because we're talking pitching and El Guapo is one of the funniest characters in recent memory, check out this story from Ump Bump. This plays out exactly like it would if I was drinking with friends in the same ballpark. Only, I never got B's in Spanish, so the second half of the story would have ended with a police officer leading me off the premises after telling El Guapo's mother, "I'm going to hit your son with a cat-flavored empenada."

Also, great play by his fantasy league buddies. Coordination is key in really busting someone's stones.

(Image from: Bat-Girl.com, boy do I miss her)

Because you can't pull fat

I guess I was in a little bit of denial about the death of Rod Beck.

I saw the story yesterday morning. I watched updates pile up on Deadspin - tagged "Too Young" - as well as the home papers in Chicago and Boston and still couldn't find much to say.

For a guy I never met, I didn't think this would be such a strange few days. From odd duck quote machine in San Francisco to good luck charm for the 1998 Cubs to a guy who pitched his arm into retirement for the Red Sox, it was a pretty entertaining run.

How many other athletes can you think of that prompt e-mails in the middle of a work day regarding his now famous stay in Iowa, living in a trailer and hanging out with fans?

The stories are better left for people who hung out with him and got to see him in his prime and in his element. Honestly, I'm going to be ignoring whatever is found regarding his death because I really don't want to know.

I'd much rather remember 1998 and a guy who looked like a grammar school gym teacher helping to take the Cubs to the playoffs. Or the man who made the phrase, "I've never heard of anyone going on the DL for pulled fat" famous.

Now, I'll remember a chuckle I just got when looking for a picture to post and an exact quote from Beck. By entering, "Beck, pulled fat" into Google, it suggests, "Did you mean, 'Beck, played fat?'"

Well, that, too.

(Image from MarkGrace.com)

Don't call it a comeback

I usually shy away from traditional "link dump" posts on both the blogs because if I ever got started, lazy would become the word of the year around here.

For a really good link, I'll make the exception.

Thanks to the incomparable Ballhype, I came across a New York Times article about Kerry Wood's rehab and it's wildly different than I'd been led to believe by the Heckler. Let me take a breath, that was a lot of cyber-name dropping for me.

So, Wood is in Arizona working to come back to the majors and between the story and the multimedia presentation, I dare you not to start pulling for the guy, unless you have a small, cold, White Sox supporting heart.

The really interesting part was the time spent on digging up who was "really" to blame for his spectacular flame out. I tend to think that regardless of who would have stepped up to tell Wood to change his throwing motion, he would have blown them off and he says as much.

As an added bonus, enjoy watching all of your favorite pitchers after reading this story (at least watch the quick video... please?). You'll swear they are all a few pitches away from disaster.

As a bonus, here's a pretty clever posting on English to SABR from a few weeks back. Just like Wood, it's time for a fresh start.

(Photo from JSOnline.com)

Thanks for nothing, Band Mom

The Twins have a larger percentage of local high school marching bands and choirs for the national anthem than I am used to.

I'm not asking for Marvin Gaye every night, but it seems at time like there's a clockwise rotation around the Twin Cities where if you want a spot on the field, you're welcome to it. Prince can only do the anthem so many times, I suppose.

Normally, once the pitchers start warming up in the bullpens, security shoos away the looky-loos so that folks who actually paid for the seats can see what's going on. The exception was apparently during the Red Sox series.

As I was going through and editing, deleting and basking in the pictures I took while Curt Schilling was warming up, I was driven nuts all over again.

The reason? Band Mom.

She'd managed to convince security that she should be at the bottom of the aisle to see her kid(s?) march onto the field. Apparently, the team-provided photographer wasn't good enough for her.

She appeared in roughly half of the pictures and since I saw her early, I framed most of the shots so that I could cut her out later. She was uncuttable in a few. I wouldn't care, but she was dead in the way for any decent shot where I could catch the back of the jersey with the name plate.

Bummer.

So, here's to you, lady. We're happy your kid is the fourth trumpet and hope it was worth being in everyone's way to commemorate the day they stood on that sacred carpeting and played to a crowd that forgot where the high school was as soon as they were announced.

I'll never forget you.



(Photos from MinneapolisRedSox for Siberian Baseball and ruined by Band Mom)

Oh!

One out away.

The smart fan inside me says it was a good stop of a losing skid in a win the Red Sox needed in a bad way.

The knucklehead sheep fan says, "Sunnuvabitch!"

I thought this bit from the Boston Globe about shaking off catcher Jason Varitek was pretty interesting, though:

"We get two outs, and I was sure, and I had a plan, and I shook Tek off," Schilling said. "And I get a big `What if?' for the rest of my life."

It was not the first time a Boston pitcher shook off Varitek in the ninth inning only to see a no-hitter get broken up. Pedro Martinez did it Aug. 29, 2000, against Tampa Bay, giving up a single to John Flaherty on a fastball instead of the curve that Varitek called for.

Hey guys, start listening to your catcher, especially if they're the captain.

(Image from Boston.com)

Twins Territory Update - Pitching

What a difference a year makes.

Last season was my first full one I'd spent in Minnesota and it gave me a little rosier view of the Twins organization. Nothing has made this clearer than watching the fans eat their young with the disappointing start this year.

I think I was pretty typical in my assessment of the team before the move. In Chicago, you're mildly aware of their presence, they hang around all year, make the playoffs and then make a quick exit. Oh, and every few nights, you'll see Torii Hunter on Web Gems as he bounces off the baggies in the Metrodome.

I was never really sure of how they won - I think a lot of fans fall into that category - they just kept moving along in a sluggish AL Central.

There's really nothing new here this year - let's not forget they got off to a season-crushing slow start last year before the emergence of Justin Morneau and Francisco Liriano - but coupled with injuries and a lack of pitching depth, the Twins are in bad shape here to begin June.

On paper, the lineup isn't comprised of world-beaters, but as a team, there are enough pieces in place - and in the right positions - to contend for the Central title this year and for years to come.

Start with perennial All-Stars in Joe Mauer and Hunter, Johan Santana and Joe Nathan. Add support players in Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and assorted pirhanas and the team should win more than they lose.

But they aren't... So what gives?

Start with some bad timing. In the midst of a slump a few weeks ago, voices of the organization from upper management to team leaders like Hunter, all spoke as one in blaming a lack of hitting on the nights when the pitchers excelled and vice-versa.

They lost seven one-run games going back through April and according to LaVelle E. Neal's game recap this morning, last night's blowout loss was "the fifth time the Twins have given up at least 10 runs in a game this season and the third time in the past three weeks."

In short, the Twins' watertight bullpen of last season is gone. The bigger problem is that so is half of the usable rotation from last season. An injury to Liriano and the retirement of Brad Radke mean that there's a rotation of minor league pitchers and retreads trying to spell the team in between Santana's starts.

Currently, Santana, Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva are the meat of the rotation, with Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz having already washed out. The buzz tends to revolve around the young arms in AAA, with fans hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again and see a Liriano-like spark to help get the team back on track.

Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza lead that charge, with Slowey in the rotation and Garza still waiting for his turn. Scott Baker rounds out the rotation for now, which shouldn't be scaring anyone.

Once the starters are through, the games are handed over to a bullpen that has also seen its share of injuries and isn't seeing the same success as they did last year when a trip to the pen was nearly automatic.

Injuries to Glen Perkins, Dennys Reyes and Jesse Crain haven't helped matters. Games are falling apart before being handed over to Joe Nathan. Slumping pitchers that let leads slip or fail to stop the bleeding seem to be more situational, as the Twins are 13th in the majors in ERA this morning with a team ERA of 4.21 (for some perspective, the Padres are at the top at 2.94 and the Devil Rays are last at 5.39).

With more time or less day job, I'd love to break things down by late innings or how many starters are run before the 5th. I suspect that the problems aren't with talent or performance as a whole, but rather blow-ups that tank games for Minnesota. Much like the phenomena of the "big inning" where pitchers get into trouble, I'm betting this is a staff-wide problem.

I'm working on the other side of this equation with the Twins hitters - a glaring problem entering the season in my opinion - but I'm not really buying the "when it rains, it pours" hypothesis advanced in this season's dry spells.

Also, as much as I'd like to see the Twins do well - at least it's easier to move season tickets for a winning team when I'm out of town - I can't see it happening with Santana, Bonser, Silva, Slowey and Baker.

Well, at least without consistient hitting.

(Photo from MinneapolisRedSox for Siberian Baseball)

I'm officially concerned

OK, I was done with the posts for the evening - and I'm making a major effort to lay off the Red Sox and the Cubs and focus on the leagues as a whole more this year, I swear - but it has me worried that Daisuke Matsuzaka has been taken under Julian Tavarez's wing.

Between the little mime theater about how to pitch - and maybe drill - A-Rod and now him being buddy-buddy in the dugout, I feel like a concerned parent who sees their kid starting to hang out with a rougher crowd.

Johan being Johan

Oh, how I missed this.

It was Day 1 of Spring Training for me in Fort Myers and while the sunshine and salty air is nice and all, it's time to get down to business. Between this and our league draft tonight, it's a big day for baseball in my little corner of the world.

For those who have never seen Johan Santana pitch, do so as quickly as you can. He gets lost in the shuffle a bit with the smaller market team, but seeing him live - and in the spring, no less - and then uploading 160 pictures from the day, it's given me a renewed appreciation on the man and his delivery.

Sure, they're not all winners, but scrolling through several series of shots from his outing to make it look like an old news reel, he hits more than he missed and looks so effortless while he does it.

Here are four picked at random and without an eye to shot composition, just to give you a little bit of the flavor.

Enjoy.





(Photos taken for Siberian Baseball)

How did I miss this?

Big thanks to The Girl who asked me, "Did you see who the Twins signed today?"

No, I hadn't. The mystery man? Sidney Ponson, the clown prince of Baltimore.

Signed to a minor-league deal, Ponson has been better known for running afoul of the law and refusing to lose weight lately, but an arm is an arm in Minneapolis these days.

Go check his bio, this dude's been around.

My favorite bit of Ponson trivia revolves around his Christmas vacation in 2005 when he reportedly punched a judge on he beach in his native Aruba. On Christmas Day... punched a judge...

The kicker was he was in better shape from a week in the joint than he was left to his own devices as a major league pitcher preparing for the season. Oh, Sid...

Welcome to the Dome, Dougboy.

(Photo from MSNBC.com)

Q and A with Will Carroll

I was driving home late last Wednesday when The Girl called me after seeing the Deadspin link to my gyroball post. After seeing a spike in visitors throughout the day, I was out of the office in the afternoon and lost track for a few hours.

"Do you know who Will Carroll is?" she asked. "He just posted a comment on your blog."

"Are you serious?" I said. "Does he sound pissed or anything?"

Mr. Carroll is a contributor to Baseball Prospectus and weighed in himself on the subject of the gyroball this week on his own colun there. It sounds like he's been sucked in - as many of us have - by the promise of a new pitch in an old game, so there's hope for all of us baseball nerds who will have two or three baseball conversations, even in the dead of November.

I wish I could lie and say that I took it all in stride, but hearing about the comment post made me wish I'd spent a lot more time doing prep work. In any event, he'd left a very nice comment and said that if I had anymore questions, to feel free to ask away.

A few days later, that's where we're at. The following is the series of questions I'd sent along as well as Mr. Carroll's unedited answers. I'd like to thank him once again for the time he's spent on this and if you're looking for a little more information, I've also found this link to Rob Neyer's blog, which has a great post on the gyroball as well.

(Quick note: the above link is from the first writing Mr. Carroll had done on the subject of the gyroball. There are some portions that aren't 100 percent accurate after he's spent more time researching it. Still has some good background, so I'll leave it up for now.)

**************

Siberian Baseball: You'd said in your post on the site, "I'm still learning about the pitch - turns out the version I teach is a variation on the "pure gyro." It's more like a slider/cutter variant than a screwball."

Can you explain the motion as it relates to pitches that we're all familiar with? Also, are there many variations on the pitch?

Will Carroll: There are three variations, each doing slightly different things based on the position of the rotation of the ball in relation to the direction of the pitch.

One drops, one doesn't drop so much, and the last, my variation, moves like a slider/cutter, but more. I actually think what I've been teaching is a combo of the last two, so there might be a de facto fourth variation.

For the last three years, I've been teaching a version that is thrown "normally" and moves across or away from a RH batter (from a RH pitcher.) It moves significantly, with what observers have called "legit 3-9 movement."

SB: How did you initially become involved with the pitch? You've been able to teach it to others and are seen as one of the top sources for information on it – what is the basic timeline of how that level of understanding came about?

WC: Rob Neyer had a question asked to him in a chat and I chased it from there. Odd how things like this start.

The timeline? Learned about it in 2003, got the book on it from Japan about two months later, tried teaching it (as a goof) for the first time in 2004, and really got serious about it this year. I'm still learning about the pitch and have probably learned more about the pitch in the last month than I have in the previous couple years.

SB: From what I've heard and read, the a lot of throwing a true gyroball comes down to timing. What are the key points to consider here? Is it a matter of release point, body rotation, ball rotation or something else?

WC: I'd rather not get to technical on the delivery of the pitch. This isn't to keep it secret, but because it's difficult to explain. The last thing I want is for someone to misunderstand what I'm saying, throw the pitch wrong, and hurt themselves. Thrown properly, the pitchers that have thrown it say that the pitch is less stressful than a slider, but done wrong, any pitch can be dangerous.

It is a very "fine" pitch. A slight variation can make the pitch do or not do things in pretty significant degree. One of the biggest 'problems' I had with the pitch is that occasionally, the pitch would break in rather than out for no apparent reason. I finally understand why, after a physicist broke down the motion. Now, instead of a problem, it's a weapon!

SB: How difficult is the pitch to throw and is there an overriding reason why it hasn't made it to the major league level? Comparitively, how tough is it on a pitcher's arm?

WC: No one besides me teaches it, as far as I can tell. I'd be happy to show any pitcher, especially if they're high level where we could see how this works in comparison to other high-quality pitches. It's one thing to say a HS kid from NJ can make this thing move, but entirely another to see if ... I don't know, Anthony Reyes could make it dance.

Tough on the arm? See above. Like I said, the experience is very limited, but anecdotally, it's not harsh. The pitch itself is a side effect of Japanese research on biomechanics, so it comes from a place of safety.

SB: Have you seen the pitch thrown in competition? It seems that many people (myself included) have had a hard time telling the difference between what is presented as a gyroball and what is a really tough slider. There are rumors that major league pitchers have asked about the pitch, so have you seen anyone quietly try it out in competition? Have you seen enough from (Daisuke) Matsuzaka to say one way or another if you think he is able to throw the pitch for strikes?

WC: A few times. And yes, it does look like a slider to some. Face it, a breaking ball is a breaking ball and even the best of us will mix up pitches that are moving at high speed. How many times has a pro announcer said a pitch is something else? I have had a couple major leaguers ask about the pitch, but none have asked to see it. Matsuzaka, I think, throws it, but does not control it well enough. I hope to meet up with him now that he's in America!

SB: While it's certainly exciting for fans to talk about the birth of a new pitch, do you think it can have an impact in the majors?

WC: That's the million dollar question. I don't know. Did the split-finger change the game? The curveball? I think it would be interesting and maybe for the guy who becomes the gyroball version of Bruce Sutter, it will change things for him.

Maybe. I'll be honest, I don't know, but it's fun to think about.

(Image from The New No. 2 as posted on Flickr.com / SportsIllustrated.com)

Gyroball - Fact or Fiction?

I was talking baseball with my boss last week and of course the name Matsuzaka came up. It had to.

Between the outrageous outlay of cash (Boston is rumored to be the winner Monday night night with a pledge of $42 million to the Seibu Lions just for the right to negotiate with Scott Boras according to Peter Gammons) and the mythical gyroball as part of the right-hander's arsenal, there's not a more interesting topic for baseball fans in November.

My boss made some comment about how he'd heard that Matsuzaka can only throw it a few times a game if that and it didn't really add up for me.

Check on YouTube and the best videos can be found here:



And here:



Gyroball or not, that's pretty nasty stuff. There's a longer clip of him pitching in the World Baseball Classic but he's making guys look pretty stupid throughout using a full array of pitches in that.

As for the gyroball, Yahoo! did a piece on it during the WBC's and it's a crazy, crazy story. Assuming the write-up is on the level, it's some monster pitch developed by scientists who were working out physics problems.

The best that I can gather is that the pitch itself is thrown like a spiral on a football - which makes sense, actually and gives it a crazy rotation. From the descriptions I'd read, it behaves a lot like a screwball, but for right-handers. The cool thing is that it's also described as looking like a hanging curveball a split second before it darts back over the plate.

One of the only confirmed pitchers to use the pitch is a teenager, Joey Niezer, and in one of the articles on him, there are reports of batters backing out of the box, afraid of being hit only to jump back to try and chase it as it paints the inside corner.

Need more? The pitch thrown nearly incorrectly - that is to say the bare minimum of spin and coordination - can drop up to a foot. Thrown well, it's rumored to dance a full yard. Are these tall tales? Probably, but just imagine the damage you could do if the claims are only half-substantiated...

Yeah, awesome.

To speak to my boss' assertion that it's only thrown once in a while, apparently you need to synch up your arm and your hips perfectly to get the desired rotation.

Even the man who will supposedly bring the pitch to the major leagues isn't saying much about it, other than that he's trying to get command on it and has throw it sparingly and sometimes by accident. "I would like to make it my out pitch," Matsuzaka said. "But it's not a miracle pitch."

Yeah, what he said... and he won tonight, too

While lurking on the Deadspin boards tonight, I figured I'd hit a couple of links and see what some of the posters are up to.

I found this interesting post about Pat Neshek, at the To Fuss Is Human, To Rant, Divine (and who needs an acronym in a baaaaad way) and his breakout month/fucked up delivery. Neshek, whose jersey appeared a few rows in front of us Tuesday night, officially qualified as a finalist for the "Strangest Jersey I've Seen in the Stands All Year" award.

Really? A rookie with 13 games under his belt and you have the jersey?

Maybe he was related or something.

In any event, he's been a quiet addition to the ballclub (called up July 7 and lost in the shuffle with the Garza call-up), but you can never really have too many submariners on a team, in my opinion. Also, he has a blog that you can link to off TFIHTRD and isn't half bad. It pops up every now and again in stories from the cities about Twins players, their hobbies and such.

Local kid, went to Madison and he's doing great - like six hits (two for homers) in 19.2 innings pitched great. As has been pointed out, we'll see if guys get used to the delivery, but I figure that won't be until next season or playoff baseball, whichever comes first. Also, both his homers have been given up to left-handed batters. This was a big enough concern tonight to keep him warming up through part of the seventh and eighth innings until the righties came up in Cleveland's batting order.

His splits from left to right - ERA of 2.45/0.00; 10/20 Ks and lest you think I'm skewing the numbers - a.) Fuck you and b.) It's 7.1 to 12.2 innings pitched.

For now, though, keep in mind Hideo Nomo rode a fucked up delivery all the way to a Rookie of the Year Award.

Now if he can just get a handle on lefties...

Case closed

I'll spare you the All-Star rant right now. The rosters have some ugly spots as always, but I don't have the strength right now and it's passable on the whole.

Still, it was interesting to see that the top names in the bullpen for the AL were new kids with Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon. I've been thinking about closers for a few days now since Joe Nathan notched his 100th career save against the Cubs last weekend in Minneapolis.

Frank the Tank and I have gone back and forth about closers and what we'd be looking for if we were GMs.

Seeing Joe Nathan on a more consistient basis makes me appreciate what he brings to the table, but I still contend (and not necessarily against Frank's opinions) that while every team has a guy at the end of the bench, it takes a special breed of cat to close out games.

Even more rare are guys who can come in and break a team's spirit. That list more or less began and ended with Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne.

Leading the majors in saves (and yes, I know that it's a pretty artificial stat and that the A's have figured out ways to exploit it for cash considerations) as of today are Jenks (25), Papelbon (25), Jason Isringhausen (24), Derrick Turnbow(23), Todd Jones (22), BJ Ryan (22), Tom Gordon (21), Trevor Hoffman (20), Brad Lidge (20), Chris Ray (20), Francisco Rodriguez (19), and Rivera (18).

I had to expand that to a top 12 to get K Rod and Rivera in there. Huston Street is 13th and the list goes on from there.

The truth is that no one is really going out there and terrifying teams right now. There are a few guys you really don't want to see, but no one on par with Rivera in his untouchable prime. For me, that's the key - it's not so much a matter of how well you're throwing as much as what the batters are seeing.

Begining as a throw away position at a time when relievers were starters who couldn't hack it and were used only when a starter couldn't pitch the whole game, relievers started to come into their own in the 70's.

Some guys will never pull off the requisite swagger. See Exhibit A, LaTroy Hawkins. After doing well as the set up man in Minnesota he was given the keys and got his ass handed to him for the better part of two seasons. I was there when he was booed at last year's home opener and saw him implode again this year in the Metrodome as a long reliever.

Now look at Jenks and Papelbon who aren't world-beaters yet, but after being thrown to the wolves have thrived.

All of this swirls about in the debate over closers, ranging from pure stats to my favorite indicator - do you want to hit the reset button on the PS2 when that guy comes in at the end of the game against you? As it stands from looking at the saves leaders right now, I'm still waiting to see who steps up as the next big closer in the majors.

The way I see it, there are a few key factors here:

* Strong arm
* Short memory
* Reputation
* Mean streak
* Winning team (no brainer as without save situations, there's little reason for a closer)
* Fan confidence
* Cool song

Who will be the next Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Mo Rivera or Lee Smith? Smart money says it's not going to be any of the middle relievers in circulation right now. Gagne is having a hard time staying in the lineup and Rivera has lost his untouchable status (but remains one of the top few closers in the league despite his demotion from unhittable god).

Who'll be next? Who has the lack of brains or abundance of stones to step in and shut down games day after day? As the Tank is fond of pointing out, it's probably not going to be Ryan Dempster (see number 5).

(Image from wrigleyball.com)